Statistical Modeling of Customers Inflow at Crunchies Fried Chicken LTD: A Case Study of Yenagoa Branch, Nigeria

Abstract

The challenges of customers’ inflow prediction and management have been a concern to the management the Crunchies Fried Chicken Ltd. So, identifying a predictive model for solving this problem is critical to effective management of the company, hence, the need for this study. The study utilized daily data covering the period from January 2024 to December 2024. The adopted methods are; order of integration test, correlogram, for model identification, conditional Least squared method of estimation and residual analysis for model adequacy. The order of integration test result showed that the customers’ inflow rate (CIR) is integrated order zero or stationary. The autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) plots indicate that an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is suitable for the CIR data. Consequently, four potential models ARMA(1,1), ARMA(2,1), ARMA(1,2), and ARMA(2,2) were evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The result indicated that ARMA(2, 2) is most appropriate and previous one and two days CIR exert significant positive effect on the current CIR under 5% level of significance. The forecast generated are quite closed to the actual values, hence, ARMA(2, 2) can be useful in predicting consumers’ inflow and actionable insight and innovation in the management of the company.