Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Precipitation in Nigeria
Keywords:
Precipitation, Variability, Seasonal, Interannual, Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, ITCZ, Wind Speed and Direction, MSLP, Regional, NigeriaAbstract
This study examines the seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation in Nigeria, focusing on the relationship between precipitation patterns and atmospheric circulation. Nigeria, as the most populous country in Africa, heavily relies on agriculture, making understanding precipitation variability crucial for food security, water resources management, and socio-economic stability. The research utilizes the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset from 1980 to 2020, analysing total precipitation, 10-meter wind components, and mean sea-level pressure across various regions in Nigeria. The study reveals significant spatial and temporal variability in precipitation, with southern regions experiencing higher and more consistent rainfall due to the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and moist maritime air masses. In contrast, northern regions exhibit lower rainfall and higher interannual variability, influenced by dry, continental air masses and the brief incursion of the ITCZ during the wet season. Statistical and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses highlight the complex relationships between precipitation and atmospheric variables. The results indicate region-specific relationships, emphasizing the importance of local climatic conditions in shaping precipitation patterns. The EOF analysis identifies dominant modes of variability, with the first two EOFs explaining approximately 75% of the total variance, underscoring the role of large-scale atmospheric processes like the ITCZ. This study contributes to a better understanding of the climatic dynamics affecting Nigeria's precipitation. The findings are critical for agricultural planning, disaster preparedness, and long-term climate adaptation strategies in Nigeria.