Enhanced Population Projection for Taraba State, Nigeria Using Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg Method in Improved Logistics Modeling

Abstract

Accurate population projection is essential for effective policy-making, resource allocation, and sustainable development, particularly in regions with rapid demographic changes such as Taraba State, Nigeria. This study employs an enhanced logistic model integrated with the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg (RKF) method to project the population of Taraba State from 1992 to 2050. The enhanced model incorporates intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, birth rate, death rate, migration, and resource limitation factors, addressing the limitations of traditional Malthusian and logistic models. Using demographic data from the National Population Commission (NPC) and Taraba State Population Commission, the model was validated against historical population data, demonstrating high accuracy with minimal error margins. The results indicate a steady population growth, reaching approximately 8 million by 2050. This study highlights the effectiveness of advanced numerical techniques in population forecasting and provides valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners in Nigeria.