Geospatial Assessment of Climate Variability and Human Health Impacts in a Petro-Coastal Region, Delta State, Nigeria

Abstract

The Niger Delta's petro-coastal zones face compounding environmental stressors from climate variability and petroleum extraction, with significant implications for human health. This study employed a geospatial approach to assess climate variability patterns and their association with health outcomes in selected coastal communities of Delta State, Nigeria, from 2000 to 2025. Land surface temperature (LST), rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets from MODIS and ERA5 were analyzed alongside health records from local facilities. Trend analysis revealed significant increases in annual mean LST and significant NDVI declines, while rainfall trends were non-significant. Health data analysis showed malaria, hypertension, and respiratory illnesses positively correlated with rising LST and negatively correlated with vegetation cover. Communities near oil extraction facilities recorded the highest disease incidence rates. Spatial vulnerability mapping identified eight communities at very high risk, characterized by proximity to oil infrastructure, coastal location, and limited adaptive capacity. The findings underscore the synergistic impacts of climate change and petroleum-related environmental degradation on human health, highlighting the urgent need for integrated climate-health adaptation strategies and strengthened environmental monitoring in Nigeria's coastal zones.