Applying Ordinal Logistic Regression to Analyze Student Performance: A Case Study at Federal Polytechnic Bali

Abstract

The persistent decline in the academic performance of Nigerian students in recent years has become a matter of significant concern. Despite the critical importance placed on educational achievement, various studies have documented this downward trend and identified multiple factors that may influence student outcomes. This research utilizes data collected from the records of graduated students at the School of Science, Federal Polytechnic, Bali, covering the academic sessions of 2021/2022, 2022/2023, and 2023/2024. The study investigates the impact of several variables—mode of entry, age at entry, department, and sex—on students’ academic performance. Employing ordinal logistic regression (proportional odds model), the analysis reveals that gender does not significantly determine the final academic grade attained at graduation. Notably, both male and female students have an equal likelihood of graduating with first-class honors, suggesting that educational policies should support both genders equally rather than prioritizing one over the other. The findings also indicate that younger students tend to perform better than their older counterparts, implying that age at entry should not be a primary concern; instead, emphasis should be on students’ ability to meet academic demands. Furthermore, students with a strong secondary school background, particularly in core science subjects, are more likely to graduate with top honors. Such students are often more academically mature, many having attended private secondary schools with solid foundational education. Based on these insights, it is recommended that policies promoting programs like the Higher School Certificate (HSC) or Remedial Science be reintroduced to ensure that only academically prepared and mature students gain admission into tertiary institutions. These measures could help improve overall student performance and produce more capable graduates in Nigerian polytechnics.