Reimagining the Reverberation of Flooding on Rental Values of Residential Properties in Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

Flooding remains one of the most persistent environmental challenges confronting Nigerian cities, with Ibadan experiencing recurrent inundation that undermines housing quality and property market stability. This study examines the effects of flooding on the rental values of residential properties in Ibadan, focusing on the roles of environmental exposure, infrastructural conditions, and institutional efficiency. Drawing on a quantitative research design, data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to tenants and estate valuers across three flood-prone communities, Ogunpa, Kudeti, and Balogun. Descriptive and inferential analyses, including correlation and multiple regression, were employed to evaluate the relationships between flood exposure, governance indicators, and rental outcomes. Results revealed that flood-prone neighbourhoods experience average rent discounts of 20–28% compared to non-exposed areas, demonstrating that flood risk acts as a negative externality capitalised into rental pricing. Regression results showed that flood exposure (β = -0.416, p < 0.01) significantly depresses rent levels, while effective drainage maintenance (β = 0.312) and institutional efficiency (β = 0.328) mitigate this effect. These findings confirm the relevance of the Hedonic Pricing Theory, suggesting that tenants rationally adjust rents in response to perceived environmental and governance risks. The study concludes that integrating flood-risk data, enforcing planning regulations, and strengthening institutional coordination are essential to stabilising Ibadan’s housing market and promoting sustainable urban resilience.