Socio-Economic Determinants and the Economic Burden of Crime: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Edo State, Nigeria (2010–2024)

Abstract

The study was on the assessment of the impact socio-economic drivers and cost of Crime in Edo State. The analytical methods adopted include; Cost Estimation model (for the estimation of cost for property loss, medical expenses, security expenditure, lost productivity), Total Cost Model and the Cost Per Capita and Economic Ratio. The outcome of the analyses showed that Total economic cost was estimated at ₦1.90 trillion (approximately $4.2 billion USD), representing 12.7% of Edo state's GDP. Lost productivity dominates (92.2%), reflecting homicide's devastating impact. Murder costs ₦18.9 million per incident—75 times more than the average non-homicide crime. Five LGAs (Egor, Etsako Central, Oredo, Akoko Edo, Igueben) account for 39.2% of total burden. Per capita burden is highest in Igueben (₦1.88 million per resident)—seven times higher than Oredo. Crime costs exceed LGA GDP in Igueben (109.2%), creating a poverty-crime trap. Individuals and households bear 99.5% of costs. African economies approximately 5-15% of GDP annually. The cost per incident analysis shows murder costing ₦18.9 million per incident—75 times more than the average non-homicide crime—underscoring the economic rationale for prioritising homicide prevention. This extreme disparity aligns with cost-of-crime studies from developed economies, where homicide consistently dominates economic burden estimates due to the valuation of statistical life. The LGA-level cost estimates reveal that five LGAs (Egor, Etsako Central, Oredo, Akoko Edo, Igueben) account for 39.2% of total economic burden. The cost per capita analysis again identifies Igueben as bearing the highest burden (₦1.88 million per resident)—seven times higher than Oredo. The economic burden ratio shows crime costs exceeding LGA GDP in Igueben (109.2%), creating a poverty-crime trap where development becomes nearly impossible. This finding mirrors research from conflict-affected regions where violence creates self-reinforcing cycles of underdevelopment.