Agricultural Land Suitability Analysis for a Rice Cultivation Using a Fuzzy AHP and GIS in Jibia Irrigation Project Area

Abstract

Rice production plays a critical role in food security and economic development in Nigeria; however, low productivity and inefficient land utilization continue to limit sustainable production. This study assessed agricultural land suitability for rice cultivation (RC) in the Jibia Irrigation Project Area (JIPA), Katsina State, Nigeria, using an integrated Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) approach based on Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) standards. Five criteria were used in the analysis Soil Physical Properties, Soil Reaction & Salinity, Soil Fertility, Exchangeable Bases, Nutrient Retention The soil parameters were spatially interpolated using kriging and standardized into suitability classes. Pairwise comparison matrices based on the Saaty scale were created and transformed into Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs) to address uncertainty in expert judgment. Fuzzy weights were derived using the fuzzy geometric mean method, defuzzified, normalized, and integrated into a GIS weighted overlay model to generate the final rice land suitability map. The consistency ratio (CR) of 0.0172 confirmed acceptable consistency in the FAHP judgment matrix. The study further incorporated a gap analysis comparing the actual areas currently utilized for rice cultivation within the irrigation project and the areas identified suitable by the FAHP-GIS model. Results revealed that 10.37% (387.46 ha) of the study area was highly suitable for rice cultivation, 52.05% (1945.68 ha) marginally suitable, 31.31% (1170.33 ha) marginally suitable, while 6.27% (234.28 ha) was unsuitable. Highly suitable zones were predominantly concentrated within the Wushin buku and parts of the Jibia hydrological sections. The comparison between actual cultivated areas and predicted suitable areas revealed that 15% (542 Ha) of land are currently cultivated rice fields are located within highly and marginally suitable zones, while some highly suitable lands remain underutilized. This mismatch indicates inefficiencies in land allocation and highlights the need for optimized agricultural planning within the irrigation scheme.