Sensitivity Analysis of a Strategic and Tactical Planning Model for Agrifood Supply Chain Sustainability in Nigeria

Abstract

A multi-period, strategic and tactical planning model was developed to take care of shipment route for these perishable goods from the farm gate to the consumer’s zone with different cold-hubs via different routes options. The S-T model addressed sensitivity and ambiguity associated with seasonal demand and product loss due to delay in shipment, to ensure timely and efficient delivery of products. Five contradicting objectives (Profit, Power Rating, Credit Performance, Response time and Distributors Reputation) were optimized, initially a single objective optimization was employed to attain a single best solution and then a multi-objective optimization to achieve a compromise solution using Chebyshev goal programming. It is indicated from the S-T model, when multiple criteria are considered in long term decision making models, direct shipments from the plant are not always the best supplying alternative, even when the demand is adequate. In Scenario 1 the profit criterion weight was not significant enough to bias the decision to improve the number of direct shipments from the plants. The model recommended to directly supply only 44% (in average) of the monthly demand from the farms whereas the model that only considered profit (Scenario 1) advised to directly ship from the farms for 88% of the monthly demand. On the contrary, Scenario 2 applied a highly magnified profit weight, which led to 62% of the demand being supplied directly from the farms.