Automation as a Catalyst for Geothermal Energy Adoption in Qatar: A Techno-Economic and Environmental Assessment

Abstract

The decarbonization of energy systems demands technologies capable of providing stable, low-emission power beyond the intermittency of solar and wind. Geothermal energy offers a continuous, weather-independent supply but remains underutilized in arid regions such as Qatar due to high capital costs, drilling risks, and subsurface uncertainty. This study examines how automation and digitalization can enhance the techno-economic and environmental feasibility of geothermal energy deployment in Qatar through three technological pathways: Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in the Dukhan Basin, repurposing of abandoned oil and gas wells for heat extraction, and ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) for district cooling in the Doha metropolitan area. Using geological datasets from the U.S. Geological Survey and QatarEnergy, combined with techno-economic and financial modeling, the analysis quantifies the influence of automation on capital expenditure (CAPEX), operational expenditure (OPEX), and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Results show that full automation reduces CAPEX by 12–14% and OPEX by 14–17%, decreasing the LCOE from USD 145/MWh to USD 125/MWh for EGS and shortening payback periods by up to two years. Environmental modeling indicates that replacing natural gas-based systems with geothermal alternatives could avoid between 4,000 and 17,600 tons of CO₂ emissions annually per project, depending on the configuration. Automation also reduces financial uncertainty by stabilizing LCOE distributions in Monte Carlo simulations. Overall, automation acts as a strategic enabler for geothermal energy in Qatar, enhancing cost efficiency, reliability, and sustainability. Integrating automated geothermal systems into Qatar’s National Vision 2030 could accelerate energy diversification and support the nation’s broader decarbonization goals.