Predicting Population Growth in Taraba State, Nigeria

An Analysis Using the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg Method

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of population is crucial for effective policy development, resource management, and sustainable growth. This research utilizes the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg (RKF) technique to project the population increase in Taraba State, Nigeria. Conventional models, including the Malthusian and logistic growth approaches, provide basic insights but often do not adequately reflect the complexities of actual demographic behavior. The logistic model, which takes into account the limits of carrying capacity, presents a more plausible framework for forecasting population patterns. The rate of prediction and the carrying capacity were estimated using data through MATLAB analytics, yielding values of  and . By applying the RKF method, this study improves the precision of numerical solutions to the logistic model, thereby minimizing errors in long-term forecasts. By utilizing census data from Nigeria for the years 1991 and 2006, alongside projected figures from the National Population Commission, Nigeria, from 2007 to 2022, the RKF method yields dependable estimates of population trends through 2050. By 2050, it is anticipated that Taraba State's population will approach 8 million individuals. The findings illustrate the RKF method’s capability to effectively capture demographic variations and enhance the accuracy of population forecasts. This study highlights the significance of sophisticated numerical approaches in demographic research and their potential to inform policy development and infrastructure planning in rapidly expanding areas like Taraba State.